Ecological Risk Modeling

Over the past forty years, modeling approaches for predicting outbreaks of MPB have captured various aspects of insect behavior, from the individual to the population level.  Historical approaches have included both deterministic and analytical process models, simulations at the landscape level, and stochastic modeling at stand and landscape levels.  Opportunity now exists in ecological risk modeling to additionally incorporate explicit genomics information for any of the insect, associated microorganisms, or tree.  

We propose to develop spatially explicit autoregressive models and process-based analytical models for MPB that incorporate genetic and population information across space and time.  Information gleaned from genomics studies – informing ecological processes that mediate the dynamics of the MPB epidemic – will be incorporated into spatially-explicit models to enhance their operational value.  By improving model parameters and structure, and characterizing population-level variation, we will create a platform that could be extended to address other forest pest systems in Canada and internationally.